Climate Central built this screening-level public web tool to help communities, planners, and leaders better understand sea level rise and coastal flood risks. Sea level can rise by two different mechanisms with respect to climate change. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. How fast it will rise depends mostly on the rate of glacier and ice sheet melting. Nature Communications, October 2019, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z Hard to miss the human influence in the 20th century. However, sufficiently accurate elevation data are either unavailable or inaccessible to the public, or prohibitively expensive in most of the world outside the United States, Australia, and parts of Europe. CoastalDEM cuts the average error to less than 2.5 inches. Le Bars, D., Drijfhout, S., & de Vries, H. (2017). Future coastal flood threats in Shanghai, China Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Melting ice sheets will cause higher sea-level rise in the state due to how the Earth rotates and gravitational pull on the waters Lett. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, custom data acquired via website. Kulp, S. A. Finally, the relatively coarse spatial resolution of LandScan data likely introduces some error into results (LandScan estimates population on a global grid of roughly 1km x 1km cells). World Meteorological Organization / Flickr, Interactive threat maps at coastal.climatecentral.org, Spreadsheet with country-level threats (CSV), http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032/meta, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3/meta. Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2019, 201817205; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 Jackson, L. P. & Jevrejeva, S. A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios. The developing countries least able to protect their residents through coastal defenses or planned evacuations could be particularly vulnerable—and are responsible for just a small fraction of global emissions. Adaptive measures such as construction of levees and other defenses or relocation to higher ground could lessen these threats. Based on sea level projections for 2050, land currently home to 300 million people will fall below the elevation of an average annual coastal flood. 11. Remote Sensing of Environment 206, 231–239 (2018). In Proceedings of the ASPRS/MAPPS 2009 Fall Conference 351 (2009). Net migration toward or away from low-lying areas will also contribute to population change. Back to top. Earth’s Future, 2, 383–406, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239 12. Loading: 0 % (L) Global Sea Levels. Back to top This will happen not just in the distant future, but also within the lifetimes of most people alive today. Read More, Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. The key variables will be how much warming pollution humanity dumps into the atmosphere and how quickly the land-based ice sheets in Greenland and especially Antarctica destabilize. & Messina, J. Spatial structure and landscape associations of SRTM error. 2014, median climate sensitivity. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, custom data acquired via website. Special Thanks. Rising Sea Levels Will Hit California Harder Than Other Places. Surging Seas collects these sea level resources and more. Mainland China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are home to the most people on land projected to be below average annual coastal flood levels by 2050 (table 2). A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. By 2100, land now home to 200 million people could sit permanently below the high tide line. Sea level rise is one of the best known of climate change’s many dangers. In: Andreone G. (eds) The Future of the Law of the Sea. The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. Although SRTM data are freely available online, they are less reliable than lidar. Desmet, Klaus & Kopp, Robert & Kulp, Scott A. Each pixel in CoastalDEM represents the corrected elevation at that point — the result of subtracting estimated error from SRTM 3.0. That factor is coastal elevation. Sea level rise model: Kopp et al. Separately, Climate Central added in local flood risk statistics approximating the one-year return level (approximately annual) water height (Muis et al. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise… Climate Central built Surging Seas Risk Finder as a free web tool to help U.S. communities, planners and leaders better understand sea level rise and coastal flood risks. Kopp, R. E. et al. All of them are expensive, limiting the options available for a city in decline. Explore where, when and what could be impacted near you. Nature Communications, October 2019, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z Staff members are authorities in communicating climate and weather links, sea level rise, climate. Natural & Human-caused Coastal Flood Days in the U.S. Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise: Advancing Waters, Could Kennedy Space Center launch pads be at risk as climate changes? In coastal regions, overestimates of elevation produce underestimates of future inundation driven by sea level rise. The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. According to a Climate Central report this week, “Sea level rise is one of the best known of climate change’s many dangers. The second mechanism is the melting of ice over land, which then adds water to the ocean. Story By: Climate Central Data from: Climate Central, USGC, Google. Since 1900, it's gone up an average of eight inches around the world, due to global warming. 16. In reality, however, the world is not on track to meet the Paris agreement’s goals. A new report constructs a sea level timeline going way back. Discussion Papers. Global and Planetary Change (2012). Environmental Research Letters 12, 044013 (2017). And as … Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Wong, T. E., Bakker, A. M. R., & Keller, K. (2017). 2014) to find regions that could permanently fall under the new high tide line in the coming decades. Dangendorf, S. et al. 6) Local annual floods. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2019, 201817205; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 Sea level rise model: Kopp et al. Then move the water gauge up a foot, or two feet, or nine feet. In practice, the costs will run deeper than immediate physical damage to buildings and infrastructure, or the costs of adaptation, which will never be perfect. Climate Central just completed a novel analysis of worldwide exposure to sea level rise and coastal flooding. The consequences range from near-term increases in coastal flooding that can damage infrastructure and crops to the permanent displacement of coastal communities. 2014). New Climate Satellite Measures Sea Level Rise Space is the best place — maybe the only place — to get a complete picture of how climate change is affecting the Earth's oceans. Between 1900 and 2016, the globally averaged sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in). And well before that land is flooded, residents will face saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies and frequent flooding. But the evidence suggests that those costs will be steep. Sea level is on the rise. Projecting the specific economic, humanitarian, and political costs of the upward revision in global exposure to sea level rise revealed by CoastalDEM is beyond the scope of this report. The city is the world’s busiest container port and mainland China’s top financial center. And in states around the world, mass displacement could shape national politics. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. In low-elevation coastal areas in the United States with population densities over 50,000 people per square mile, such as parts of Boston, Miami, and New York City, SRTM overestimates elevation by 15.5 feet on average. As humanity pollutes the … By that time, average annual coastal floods are projected to rise higher than a wide swath of Bangladesh, including parts of the cities of Dhaka and Chittagong (box 6; explore map at coastal.climatecentral.org). More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017,: 1554 which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century. Despite these existing defenses, increasing ocean flooding, permanent submergence, and coastal defense costs are likely to deliver profound humanitarian, economic, and political consequences. Ocean currents, the upwelling of cold water from the deep ocean, winds, movements of heat and freshwater, and Earth’s gravitational pull all play a role in moving water masses around. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise. That model underestimates the height of annual floods by an average of 4.3 inches, relative to one-year flood heights estimated using standard methods at U.S. tide gauges with at least 30 years of hourly water level data. Back to top Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. By 2100, sea level may be as high as six-and-a-half feet above 1992 levels, putting the homes of 7.8 million Americans at risk of being flooded. The Facts About Sea Level Rise. But in the coming decades, the greatest effects will be felt in Asia, thanks to the number of people living in the continent’s low-lying coastal areas. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise… Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K. & Wigley, T. M. L. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections the MAGICC sea level model v2.0. The pace of sea level rise accelerated beginning in the 1990s, coinciding with acceleration in glacier and ice sheet melting. Climate Central has created an interactive, zip-searchable map of the U.S. to show the 20 ft of sea level rise that would be locked in by 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming, based on a newly published Science study. The retreat of the world’s coasts could affect countries’ near-shore maritime claims, encouraging international disputes over fisheries and other ocean resources. Bakker, A. M. R., Wong, T. E., Ruckert, K. L., & Keller, K. (2017). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science basis. Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. & Nagy, Dávid Krisztián & Oppenheimer, Michael & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban & Strauss, Benjamin H., 2018. 5) Protective features. CoastalDEM data show that the problem is set to worsen. Climate Central has created an interactive, zip-searchable map of the U.S. to show the 20 ft of sea level rise that would be locked in by 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming, based on a newly published Science study. Today, one in every four Bangladeshis lives on land that could flood at least once a year, on average, by 2050. This clouds understanding of where and when sea level rise could affect coastal communities in the most vulnerable parts of the world. Kopp, R. E., R. M. Horton, C. M. Little, J. X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, D. J. Rasmussen, B. H. Strauss, and C. Tebaldi (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 5946– 5951 (2017). As sea levels continue to rise throughout the century, chronic flooding will spread and more land will be permanently lost to the ocean. Sea level rise could have wide-ranging political consequences. 5. Tighe, M. & Chamberlain, D. Accuracy Comparison of the SRTM, ASTER, NED, NEXTMAP USA Digital Terrain Model over Several USA Study Sites DEMs. Risk Zone Map shows near-term sea level rise and coastal flood threats. Nature Communications, October 2019, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z Global sea level rise began around the start of the 20th century. West Bengal and coastal Odisha are projected to be particularly vulnerable, as is the eastern city of Kolkata (box 5; Home to 26 million people, Shanghai is China’s biggest single urban agglomeration. Special Thanks. CoastalDEM reveals significant increases in projected flood exposure in coastal areas as sea levels rise. SRTM data measure the tops of features that protrude from the ground—such as buildings and trees—as well as the ground itself. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Next, consider India’s situation in 2050. 2014, median climate sensitivity. Start with mainland China. Tools from NOAA, Climate Central, Information is Beautiful, and EarthTime are helpful for visualizing the effects of sea level rise. Back to top. Although values derived using CoastalDEM represent cutting-edge projections of human exposure to global sea level rise this century, there are several caveats to note about the findings described in this report: 1) Bias in CoastalDEM. (Although lidar data are publicly available for the United States and parts of Europe and Australia, as well as some other areas, the analysis in this report relies exclusively on CoastalDEM.). Muis, S. et al. & Messina, J. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). A new digital elevation model produced by Climate Central helps fill the gap. Researchers say it’s the first study to overlay affordable housing data — including both subsidized and free market low-income units — with sea level rise and flood risk data. National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Data, custom information acquired via website. As humanity pollutes the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, the planet warms. 7 014032 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032/meta; Buchanan, M.K., Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M. et al., Climatic Change (2016) 137: 347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 To better understand the potential impact on vulnerable U.S. populations and to aid resiliency planning, we assess the growing exposure of affordable housing with unprecedented geographic resolution and national comprehensiveness. By 2050, land now home to 93 million people could be lower than the height of the local average annual coastal flood. This study’s middle-of-the-road projections for 2030 range from one inch of local sea level rise in the northwest corner of Washington State, where the land is slowly rising, to 8 inches near New Orleans, where it is sinking. Scientists agree that climate change has been driving a rise in global sea level, and the rise will accelerate, leading to ocean intrusion on land and aggravated coastal flood risk. http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/ Sea level rise is a near term danger: today’s communities must make choices not just on the behalf of future generations, but also for themselves. Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Drought, extreme heat, and the other dangers of climate change could displace many more. Bamber, J., et al. The recent migration that has figured so prominently in recent European elections pales in comparison to the potential displacements of the coming decades, when many millions of people could flee rising seas around the world—both across borders, and within them. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013). Earth’s Future 5, 1217–1233 (2017). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, custom data acquired via website. Accurately measuring coastal elevation over large areas is neither easy nor cheap. Sea level rise is a global story, and it affects every coastal nation. 2016), allowing the analysis to combine the water heights of such flood events with projected sea level rise when identifying areas at high risk. In low-lying parts of coastal Australia, for instance, SRTM data overestimate elevation by an average of 8.2 feet (2.5 meters). Climate Central calculated that “roughly three-quarters of the tidal flood days now occurring in towns along the East Coast would not be happening in the absence of the rise in the sea level caused by human emissions.” (See “Storms and Flooding” below.) The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. However, this report focuses on median projections from a sea level rise model that does not incorporate the higher end of potential ice sheet sensitivity (Kopp et al. Surging Seas collects these sea level resources and more. 7:11969 doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969 (2016). 18. URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717306016. 3) Sea level rise models. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Climatic Change, 144(2), 347–364. More sea level resources from Climate Central. Deep, immediate cuts to global emissions would modestly reduce the danger posed by rising seas this century. Lidar is relatively expensive, however, typically requiring plane, helicopter, or drone overflights, as well as laser-based equipment. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). Projecting where and when that rise could translate into increased flooding and permanent inundation is profoundly important for coastal planning and for reckoning the costs of humanity’s emissions. By overlaying social and economic data on a map that depicts sea level rise, a community can see the potential impact that sea level rise can have on vulnerable people and businesses. Sea level can rise by two different mechanisms with respect to climate change. Risk Finder includes projections, analysis, and downloadable graphics and reports for every coastal city, county, and state -- and more -- in the contiguous U.S. As a result, projections based on CoastalDEM may underestimate the extent of population exposure to future flooding. Interactive global map showing areas threatened by sea level rise and coastal flooding. Where lidar data are not available, researchers and analysts rely on one of several global datasets, most typically data sensed from Earth’s orbit through a NASA project known as the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, or SRTM. Read More, Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. Jonathan L. Bamber, Michael Oppenheimer, Robert E. Kopp, Willy P. Aspinall, Roger M. Cooke. Climate Central converted elevation data to reference local mean higher-high water levels (roughly, high tide lines, derived using satellite measurements of sea surface heights and using global tidal models), and compared these elevations to sea level rise projections (Kopp et al. Human-caused climate change is creating more coastal flood days in the U.S. New analysis looks at the human-caused influence on the number of coastal flood days for various locations across the U.S. As the climate warms, rising sea levels will mean more damage from hurricane storm surge. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Use the “+” button to zoom in. Explore where, when and what could be impacted near you. Notably, the benefits of deep emissions cuts would reach far beyond sea level rise, reducing the danger posed by climate change’s many other risks. Scientists have long worked to project how quickly various amounts of global warming could raise the level of the world’s oceans—a question about which much uncertainty remains, given the challenges of understanding how ice sheets will respond to the extreme pace of warming they are now experiencing. General Disclaimer & Legal Terms Risk Finder includes projections, analysis, and downloadable graphics and reports for every coastal city, county, and state -- and more -- in the contiguous U.S. Climate-change-driven sea level rise will continue to amplify coastal flooding in the coming decades. Jiangsu Province, China’s most densely populated province, could be highly vulnerable to chronic ocean flooding in just thirty years. A new interactive map from nonprofit organization Climate Central gives an unsettling visualization of what New York City would look like, should sea levels drastically rise. Back to top A closer look at the cases of mainland China, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam sheds light on the scope of the problem. Box 5. Tools from NOAA, Climate Central, Information is Beautiful, and EarthTime are helpful for visualizing the effects of sea level rise. China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are home to the greatest number of people who today live on land that could be threatened by permanent inundation by 2100—151 million in total, and 43 million in China alone. Underestimates of flood heights produce underestimates of inundation. At midcentury, sea-level rise projections under moderate cuts are similar to those under unchecked emissions (known as RCP 8.5); by the end of the century, however, projections diverge much more. This report is based on a pollution scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, which assumes that humanity will moderately reduce warming emissions roughly in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Those estimates reveal that far more land—and more people—will be vulnerable to sea level rise during this century than previously believed (chart 1). Sea level rise is a game of millimeters a year, but those millimeters add up to a huge amount of water entering the world’s oceans. Bright, E. A., Coleman, P. R., Rose, A. N. & Urban, M. L. Landscan 2010 (2011). Check out the resources below to learn more about sea-level rise in South Florida and beyond. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Environmental Research Letters 12, 114002 (2017). Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., & Strauss, B. H. (2017). Take the case of the coastal provinces of China, the country that today is home to more people who live on land vulnerable to chronic flooding at midcentury than any other. NSW Government policy Guidance on the NSW framework for managing existing and future coastal management issues, including those related to climate change and sea level rise, is outlined here . Population exposure estimates do not factor in potential coastal defenses, such as seawalls or levees. Methodology: CoastalDEM (Kulp and Strauss 2018) is a new digital elevation model based on SRTM 3.0, a near-global dataset derived from satellite radar during a NASA mission in 2000. By that year, projected sea level rise could push average annual floods above land currently home to some 36 million people. Nauels, A., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Meinshausen, M. & Mengel, M. Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global data on protective features such as levees and seawalls are not publicly available, so those features, which reduce exposure to sea level rise, are not incorporated into this analysis. Moderate emissions cuts. Springer, Cham. Sea level rises map: Maps showing the difference in flooding between 2C and 4C (Image: CLIMATE CENTRAL) Sea level rises map: A map showing the flooding across the UK if sea levels … And as it does so, ice sheets and glaciers melt and warming sea water expands, increasing the volume of the world’s oceans. An independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. It could also disrupt global supply chains by limiting access to ports and coastal transportation. Lett. Such cuts would reduce the total number of people threatened by annual flooding and permanent inundation at the end of the century by 20 million, relative to moderate emissions cuts made roughly in line with the Paris agreement. To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. Surging Seas maps, graphics and information are backed by scientifically peer-reviewed Climate Central research papers.National and state reports and fact sheets provide background and translate our research for more general audiences. Claudia Tebaldi et al 2012 Environ. Integrates the leading sea level rise science, local flood history, and cutting-edge elevation data Customizable by year, projection type, sea level rise model, pollution scenario, and more Combine these layers with your own GIS data to learn what areas you care about are at risk of flooding The most recent special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise … Shanghai, which is the country’s most populous city, is projected to be particularly vulnerable to ocean flooding in the absence of coastal defenses (box 4). How many people today live on implicated land network of tide-gauge sites influence of land Cover on Shuttle Topogra-phy! 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